It’s amazing just how much things can change in a month, and things have certainly changed for the Michigan Football program. Less than four weeks after winning a national championship, Jim Harbaugh has departed for the NFL, key members of his staff have left along with him, and the Wolverines will need to replace 20 guys who’ve declared for the NFL Draft – guys like JJ McCarthy, Blake Corum, Roman Wilson, Zak Zinter, Mike Sainristil, and Kris Jenkins.

The good news for Michigan fans is that several key Wolverines are returning for another year, including guys like Donovan Edwards, Colston Loveland, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Will Johnson, and Rod Moore. There are obviously some question marks, but there is also a lot of firepower remaining on both sides of the ball.

Sherrone Moore now steps into a permanent role as head coach, and he’ll obviously look to do everything he can to maintain the success created by Harbaugh over the last three years. Although fans should have plenty of confidence that Moore and his staff (which is still a work in progress) can get the job done, the reality is that it’s difficult to replace so many key pieces without skipping a beat.

So, what is a fair expectation for the Michigan Football program in 2024? First, let’s take a look at the 2024 regular season schedule:

Aug. 31: vs. Fresno State
Sept. 7: vs. Texas
Sept. 14: vs. Arkansas State
Sept. 21: vs. USC
Sept. 28: vs. Minnesota
Oct. 5: at Washington
Oct. 12: BYE
Oct. 19: at Illinois
Oct. 26: vs. Michigan State
Nov. 2: vs. Oregon
Nov. 9: at Indiana
Nov. 16: BYE
Nov. 23: vs. Northwestern
Nov. 30: at Ohio State

Looking at the schedule above, Michigan won’t have the luxury of playing what amounts to several preseason games to begin the year. The Wolverines will welcome a tough Longhorns team into the Big House in Week 2, and they’ll also face three of the four Big Ten newcomers from the Pac 12 (USC, at Washington, and Oregon). Michigan State isn’t elite, but the Spartans did hire a new head coach that has brought a renewed sense of confidence to East Lansing (along with some key transfers).

And then there’s Ohio State, a program that has absolutely been on fire during the early off-season. The Buckeyes have snagged six prospects from the transfer portal, including a pair of former five-stars from Alabama – QB Julian Sayin and DB Caleb Downs. Although Michigan has owned the rivalry for the last three seasons, it’s a pretty safe bet that the 2024 trip to Columbus will be the biggest challenge the Wolverines face all year.

Realistically, there are six games on Michigan’s 2024 regular season schedule that could swing the season in one direction or the other: Texas, USC, at Washington, Michigan State, Oregon, and at Ohio State. As of now, it’s hard for me to imagine a realistic scenario where Michigan goes 6-0 in those contests. The fan in me would obviously love to say 6-0, but the realist in me says 4-2.

In years past, two losses in the regular season would have killed a programs chances to compete in the College Football Playoff, but that won’t be the case in 2024. With the expansion from 4 teams to 12, a 10-2 Michigan team would certainly be in the playoff picture, particularly when considering the strength of schedule.

I’d obviously love to see the Wolverines make it four straight wins over Ohio State and win their fourth consecutive Big Ten Championship in 2024, but that seems like a tall order given all that they need to replace in Ann Arbor. For head coach Sherrone Moore, a 10+ win season and a playoff appearance in year one would be a pretty good way to start out his coaching career at Michigan – and that’s exactly how I see it playing out.