The Michigan Wolverines have one of the toughest schedules in all of college football in 2024. In addition to a Week 2 non-conference matchup in Ann Arbor against Texas, the Wolverines will square off against teams like USC, Washington, and Oregon as part of the new-look Big Ten Conference. Of course, the regular season caps off with the annual rivalry game against Ohio State, with ‘The Game’ shifting back to Columbus in 2024.

Given all of the losses on the coaching staff and the roster, it seems more likely than not that the Wolverines will take a bit of a step back this fall. At the same time, a quick look at the current roster and staff should give Michigan fans plenty of confidence that the Wolverines can make another run at the Big Ten Championship and ultimately the National Championship.

Let’s take a look at the realistic best and worst case scenarios for Michigan in 2024, starting with the worst case.

Worst-Case Scenario (7-5)

I think there are five potential losses for Michigan in 2024 under the worst-case scenario.

The Week 2 matchup against Texas obviously poses the biggest early threat, particularly as the Wolverines are still trying to work out the kinks of an offense that returns just one starter from the 2023 season.

The week four matchup against USC could also be problematic for the Wolverines. Admittedly, USC is also trying to adjust to life after Heisman trophy winning QB Caleb Williams, but Lincoln Riley is a great head coach and it seems unlikely that the Trojans will be a pushover in 2024.

The third potential loss of the 2024 season was a toss-up between a road contest at Washington and the rivalry game with Michigan State in Ann Arbor. Although the Washington game was tempting given that it’s a relatively new environment far away from the Big House, the reality is that the Huskies are tasked with replacing far too much talent to pose a significant risk. I know that most Michigan fans will scoff at the idea of the Spartans beating the Wolverines in the Big House this season, but it’s not like we haven’t seen that movie before – particularly when Michigan is the heavy favorite. Michigan State loves playing the underdog role when facing Michigan, and first-year head coach Jonathan Smith has been able to add some decent pieces to the roster via the transfer portal – primarily at the QB position with Aaron Chiles. Far-fetched? Sure. Impossible? No.

The Week 8 matchup against Oregon could serve as the fourth loss for the Wolverines in 2024. In fact, Oregon might be the most difficult regular season opponent the Wolverines face all year. Head Coach Dan Lanning has loaded up with offensive talent, reeling in two of the top transfer portal QB’s in Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore. With a stout offensive line leading the way, the Ducks offensive attack will certainly pose a big challenge for the Michigan defense.

The fifth loss of the regular season under the worst-case scenario comes against the Buckeyes. Ohio State has gone all in on the off-season, spending upwards of an estimated $15 million to build the Buckeye roster for a National Championship run in 2024. With the game returning to the hostile environment in Columbus, along with the fact that head coach Ryan Day will essentially be coaching for his job on Nov. 30, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the Buckeyes snap the three-game losing streak to the Wolverines.

• Week 1: Fresno State – W
• Week 2: Texas – L
• Week 3: Arkansas State – W
• Week 4: USC – L
• Week 5: Minnesota – W
• Week 6: at Washington – W
• BYE
• Week 7: at Illinois – W
• Week 8: Michigan State – L
• Week 9: Oregon – L
• Week 10: at Indiana – W
• BYE
• Week 11: Northwestern – W
• Week 12: at Ohio State – L

Best Case Scenario (11-1)

As weird as it may sound, working through the best-case scenario was far more difficult than the worst-case scenario. Under the best-case scenario, I see Michigan going 11-1 overall. But with a difficult schedule presenting a handful of opponents that could account for that single loss, narrowing it down to one team wasn’t easy.

Although the 2024 schedule is certainly difficult, Michigan does have the luxury of playing most of those tough matchups in the Big House. Texas, USC, Michigan State, and Oregon will all need to deal with the Wolverines in front of 110,000-plus rocking the maize and blue, and Michigan hasn’t lost a game at the Big House since the 2020 COVID season. Even though Michigan is breaking in a new head coach and a mostly-new roster, it’s never easy to win a football game in Ann Arbor if you’re the visiting team.

It might seem like the most obvious loss for an 11-1 Michigan team comes on the road against Ohio State, but I’m not buying the hype in Columbus. Sure, the Buckeyes have done one hell of a job on the recruiting trail and in the transfer portal, emptying their pockets to build a national championship-caliber roster. But it’s not as if the Buckeyes have been starved for talent over the last three years, and the reality is that Michigan has just been the tougher team as of late. Will Ohio State be good in 2024? Yes. Will the Buckeyes beat Michigan in Columbus on Nov. 30? I don’t think so.

Under the scenario of an 11-1 regular season, I think the most likely loss comes in Week 2 against Texas. As I mentioned under the worst-case scenario above, the early-season matchup against the Longhorns poses the biggest risk to Michigan, particularly as the Wolverines will be trying to work out the kinks of an offense that returns just one starter from the 2023 season.

• Week 1: Fresno State – W
• Week 2: Texas – L
• Week 3: Arkansas State – W
• Week 4: USC – W
• Week 5: Minnesota – W
• Week 6: at Washington – W
• BYE
• Week 7: at Illinois – W
• Week 8: Michigan State – W
• Week 9: Oregon – W
• Week 10: at Indiana – W
• BYE
• Week 11: Northwestern – W
• Week 12: at Ohio State – W