CBS Sports’ writer Chip Patterson came out with the top five most-likely Big Ten Championship matchups. Regardless of who you listen to, the consensus options to win the Big Ten are normally either Ohio State, Oregon, or Michigan — with Penn State sprinkled in.
Patterson had all four of those teams in the five different scenarios. He has the Wolverines in there two different times, but neither is the highest on his list.
At No. 5, Patterson has Michigan vs. Oregon.
Reaching the Big Ten title game for a fourth consecutive season would be quite a statement for Michigan in the wake of losing coach Jim Harbaugh and 13 NFL Draft picks from last year’s national title team. In this specific scenario, it would also likely mean a fourth-consecutive win against Ohio State. That comes comes with its own set of “what ifs” and hypothetical drama, especially because a title game appearance by Oregon likely means both teams here would have defeated the Buckeyes on their path to Indianapolis. Coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks have the roster to make a thunderous entrance to the Big Ten in 2024; what better way to do it than make the title game and square off against the reigning champs?
No. 4, he has a Penn State vs. Oregon game.
Then at No. 3, Patterson has a rematch between Michigan vs. Ohio State.
One common thread in our first two hypothetical matchups is the need to beat Ohio State to make the Big Ten title game. The reason those scenarios are No. 4 and No. 5, and not inside the top three, is that it seems unlikely Ohio State will lose every game against another conference title contenders. Will the Buckeyes take a loss in a schedule that includes Oregon, Penn State and Michigan? It’s possible, if not probable, they’ll get tripped up somewhere along the way. But losing all three of those appears out of the question, so now we’re looking at different ways to get rematches of regular-season games involving the Buckeyes.
First up is “The Game, Part 2”: a scenario in which both Ohio State and Michigan enter their rivalry game undefeated in conference play and clear of the rest of the teams in the standings. That may seem crazy given the depth of the conference, but Ohio State and Michigan have entered their rivalry game with undefeated conference records in each of the last two seasons, and over the last three years, they have just one loss combined to a team outside of the rivalry (Michigan at Michigan State in 2021). If the Big Ten had already picked its title game participants based on winning percentage, an Ohio State-Michigan rematch would have been the matchup in each of the last three years.
The No. 2 likeliest option, according to Patterson, is Ohio State vs. Penn State.
The No. 1 game would be Ohio State vs. Oregon.
It’s common for people to assume either Ohio State or Oregon will be in there. Both teams should be powerhouses in 2024. The Ducks return a ton of their roster from last season and Dan Lanning went out and landed a few key transfers, along with starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Oregon does have to face Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin this season — so there is a chance of at least one loss on its schedule.
The Buckeyes have one of the easier schedules in the Big Ten. They get Michigan at home and their away schedule consists of Michigan State, Oregon, Northwestern, and Penn State. Obviously, PSU and Oregon won’t be easy away games, but Ohio State should cruise during its home games until the Buckeyes host Michigan.
Then there’s Penn State. A team that has been disappointing for several years. The Nittany Lions haven’t been to a Big Ten Championship game since 2016, but it does feel like this is the season James Franklin has a puncher’s chance. Drew Allar is back and the PSU defense should be really good. Penn State doesn’t play either Michigan or Oregon in 2024, so Ohio State is the biggest test standing in its path. PSU does have to travel to both USC and Wisconsin.
Michigan does have one of the tougher schedules. The Wolverines don’t have a super tough away schedule outside of Ohio State. Washington won’t be a pushover. But the Wolverines’ home schedule will be testing. Michigan will host USC, Michigan State, and Oregon.
While there are a few other teams that could make an appearance in the Big Ten Championship game like USC or Wisconsin, it definitely feels like it will come down to Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, or Penn State.
